What Could Go Wrong in the Global Economy?

Session at the Festival of Economics 2016 in Bristol, chaired by Diane Coyle and featuring Jagit Chadha of NIESR, Swati Dhingra of LSE, Linda Yueh of Oxford University, and Michelle Cini of the University of Bristol

  1. Jagit Chadha: fixing the financial system after a 2008-style crash is the sort of thing that takes a generation. #economicsfest
  2. Michelle Cini: some things that can go wrong in the global economy are political, eg. the current rise of populism. #economicsfest
  3. Cini: populists who gain power find it hard to govern, so are likely to disappoint and be replaced. #economicsfest
  4. Difficult to be an optimistic when working on european affairs @michcini #economicsfest
  5. Swati Dhingra: UK & US politicians have promised investment in infrastructure but it's not materialising. #economicsfest
  6. Linda Yueh: Slowing of growth and rising inequality are global, long term issues with complex origins, not short-term crises. #economicsfest
  7. Yueh: Policy can create better jobs and a more equal society without hurting growth, eg. by investment in education. #economicsfest
  8. Yueh quotes Friedman that test of a policy is its results, not the intention behind it. #economicsfest
  9. Dhingra: Trade policy (incl. globalisation) results in many people "left behind". Not surprising they oppose establishment #economicsfest
  10. Chadha: Despite troubling short-term effects of globalisation, long term gains for us in the UK have been enormous. #economicsfest
  11. Chadha: immigrants pay 4 or 5 times as much tax as they get in benefits. Politicians have put that extra money in pensions. #economicsfest
  12. Chadha: Since crisis, UK private debt has come down and long-term unemployment has not risen as much as feared. #economicsfest
  13. Cini: mainstream political parties seek to recapture lost votes rather than innovate to win over new supporters. #economicsfest
  14. Yueh: One way technology changes the possibilities for policy: negative interest rates easier in a mainly cashless world. #economicsfest
  15. Varieties of infrastructure discussed: mobile data, electricity system, road'n'rail maintenance, headline projects like HS2 #economicsfest
  16. Arrive at #economicsfest to find folks asking questions about tech - & @DianeCoyle1859 saying save for tomorrow! https://t.co/hxS2q3yz5E
    Arrive at #economicsfest to find folks asking questions about tech - & @DianeCoyle1859 saying save for tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/hxS2q3yz5E
  17. Cini: populists in power can lead to inertia as they don't take bold decisions. #economicsfest
  18. Cini: The Euro crisis is not over. Political ramifications are still happening, particularly in Greece & Italy. #economicsfest
  19. Yueh introduces phrase "the doom loop": crises bouncing back and forth between banks & the state. #economicsfest
  20. Chadha: Financial crises depend on the unexpected, so in principle impossible to predict, but so are responses & prevention. #economicsfest
  21. Some audience using questions to make long speeches: please don't! We don't have opportunity to do your topic justice. #economicsfest
  22. Great panel at #economicsfest  tackling questions on everything from Brexit to Uber to Trump to the Autumn Statement https://t.co/nx9DrqrFHy
    Great panel at #economicsfest tackling questions on everything from Brexit to Uber to Trump to the Autumn Statement pic.twitter.com/nx9DrqrFHy
  23. Yueh: UK public investment, incl education, heavily cut since the crisis: we need to consider what we lost and reinvest. #economicsfest
  24. Chadha: economic effects of Brexit vote will kick in next year, greatest hurt landing on those who tended to vote Leave. #economicsfest